Argonne examines Hybrids and E-REVs and their fuel economy

We all know the Volt is set to hit at the end of 2010. But how much of an impact will they have? My own calculations show me reducing my gasoline consumption by 90%, but is that the case for everyone? How do you compute gas mileage for the average buyer?

Argonne National Labs has been pumping out simulation data for E-REV, Hybrid and PHEV cars for a while now, and they’re becoming the primary source of information as to whether or not vehicles like the Volt will be successful in production, and at what cost.

The data used was collected in 2005 by drivers in Kansas City study involving 100 people monitoring their driving habits. From there, six vehicle models were used – a conventional car, a gas-electric hybrid, a hybrid plug-in with 4kWh or 8kWh of energy storage (electric only up to a certain speed, electric plus engine after that or after charge depletion), and two serial hybrids (E-REV) at 12kWh and 16kWh (30 and 40 mile variants).

The first thing that got my attention in the report was the MPG figures (also listed as liters per mile in the report) – the conventional gasoline car got 36.7MPG, the 16kWh E-REV that used 88% less fuel than the conventional counterpart (6.4L/100km vs. 0.79L/100km), which is about 300MPG. The 12kWh E-REV got a fuel economy of approximately 163MPG, the 8kWh PHEV got 94MPG and the 4kWh got 70MPG.

The payback time numbers however paint a different picture. At 9c/kWh and $4/gal, ignoring residual value and maintenance, the cost of the vehicle plus fuel is 8-12.5 years for E-REVs and about 8 years for the PHEVs. Its a little depressing when you remember the battery is only warrantied for 10 years.

This isn’t to say that PHEVs and E-REVs will fail. Rather the approach is to target those who drive just enough to deplete the battery’s charge. The folks who use just enough of the cheap electricity and very little or no gas. And given the small number of production units for the first few years (until about 2015) it shouldn’t be an issue to find those who would achieve a rapid payback time on the vehicle, or who have the money and are willing to pay a green tax. As prices come down, so will the payback time and the market for whom E-REVs and PHEVs makes sense for expands. By 2020 when the cost of adding a 20 mile PHEV in a power split configuration is $4000 and a 40-mile E-REV is $7500, the market will be sufficiently large assuming gas prices continue on their highly volatile trend.

(from Green Car Congress)

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