Powertrain 2030: Vehicle Propulsion in 20 years…

I’ve been giving some thought to what cars might be on dealership lots in 2020 and 2030. Unfortunately, the cars in 2020 don’t look that much different than today’s cars – electric cars like the Volt are cheaper but they aren’t mainstream yet (it takes another 5 years for it to kick in), and fuel cell cars are still in the realm of the expensive $35,000-50,000 large SUVs (they start there because they can sacrifice a bit of the otherwise large margins those vehicles have). But 2030 is much more interesting – battery prices have dropped and so have fuel cell prices.

Batteries and the electric grid are still lacking in terms of quick-charge capacity – medium sized car EVs are capabile of driving for 240 highway miles (65-75mph) in half the size of the initial Chevy Volt battery. But charging them still poses a problem – how do you put 90kWh of energy into the battery. Because the batteries are still somewhat sizable and heavy – 5 cubic feet, 200 lbs – they aren’t easily changeable since they’re still considered a key structural piece of the car that needs to be protected by a space frame just like the human occupants.

Putting 90kWh of energy into the car in under five minutes would require over 1MW of power. Thats not safe for someone to handle, and there are many other complex issues like conductor size, safety and short-circuit protection that would need to be addressed. Suffice to say you wouldn’t want to be anywhere near the car while it was charging in case something went catastrophically wrong.

So the need for a range extender will still need to be required. Hydrogen seems like the most likely candidate – fuel cells will start commercial introduction in 2015, and by 2030 should be cheap enough (see superatoms for replacing expensive materials like platinum with tungsten carbide) for mass production, with only small (10-15%) cost over a standard internal combustion engine, plus the benefit of much fewer moving parts.

I’ve outlined where I think the sweet spot of the market will be below. There are a few assumptions, one is that hydrogen refueling infrastructure is available, and that the grid can handle the cars (which I think it will anyways, we just need smart grid technology to keep the cars from charging at the wrong times).

Battery – 30-32 mile AER ($170/kWh)

• Small car: 10kWh ($1070)
• Mid-size car: 13kWh ($2200)
• Large sedan: 15kWh ($2550)
• Small/Mid SUV: 16.5kWh ($2850)
• Mid-sized SUV: 18kWh ($3060)
• Full-sized SUV: 21.5kWh ($3655)

Battery characteristics for sedans:

• 450 Wh/kg, 600W/L
• 6000 W/kg
• Sufficient cycle life to last 10 years or 150,000 miles at 70% DoD

Battery characteristics for trucks and SUVs: (trading power per kg for higher energy per kg and L for less weight and volume)

• 500 Wh/kg, 650W/L
• 5000 W/kg
• Sufficient cycle life to last 10 years or 150,000 miles at 70% DoD

Additional Fuel Source – Hydrogen Fuel Cell

• $3500 for 95W (small cars)
• $5500 for 220W (Mid/large SUV)

Hydrogen Fuel Cell characteristics:

• Last 80,000 road miles (because charging every night means the battery does 80-90% of the driving, endurance can be tuned out of the FC to reduce cost)
• 360 mile range (total vehicle range: 400 mi from full charge)

Fuel cost per mile (in 2010 $)

• 2.7c/mi on electricity
• 4.5c/mi on H2 (assuming cost of H2 is $3.00/gallon gasoline equivalent)
• For reference, a 30MPG sedan has a fuel cost per mile of 10c/mi at $3.00/gal, at 12,000 miles per year vs an 80/20 mix of elec./H2, this is a savings of $828/yr

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• California utilities invest in efficiency instead of new power plants
• Imara announces new Li-Ion batteries!
• Nissan to Lease LEAF Battery